Valoración de la empresa orientada al mercado de capitales: Hallazgos de la investigación empírica del mercado de capitales y métodos de valoración alternativos
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29105/vtga6.2-663Palabras clave:
Capital, CAPM, Calificación, Acciones, Anomalías, ValoraciónResumen
Los resultados de la investigación del mercado de capitales muestran que el CAPM no puede explicar la rentabilidad de las acciones y que otros modelos, por ejemplo, Fama & French, son de uso limitado. Otros estudios incluso sugieren que las empresas con bajo riesgo y buenas calificaciones crediticias superan el rendimiento de las acciones. Las anomalías de un mercado de capitales ineficiente cuestionan la valoración orientada al mercado de capitales y conducen a la recomendación de derivar el valor de la empresa con base en el riesgo de ganancias, es decir, sin datos del mercado de capitales sobre el objeto de valoración.
Descargas
Citas
Ang, A., & Chen, J. (2007). CAPM over the long run: 1926-2001. Journal of Empirical Finance, 14(1), 1-40. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2005.12.001
Ang, A., Chen, J., & Xing, Y. (2006). Downside Risk. Review of Financial Studies, 19(4), 1191-1239. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhj035
Ang, A., Hodrick, R., Xing, Y., & Zhang, X. (2006). The Cross-Section of Volatility and Expected Returns. Journal of Finance, 61(1), 259-299. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2006.00836.x
Ang, A., Hodrick, R., Xing, Y., & Zhang, X. (2009). High Idiosyncratic Volatility and Low Returns: International and Further U.S. Evidence. Journal of Financial Economics, 1, 1-23. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2007.12.005
Artmann, S., Finter, P., & Kempf, A. (2012). Determinants of expected stock returns: Large sample evidence from the German market. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 6(1), 758784. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1653747
Asness, C., Moskowitz, T., & Pedersen, L. (2013). Value and momentum everywhere. Journal of Finance, 68, 929-985. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12021
Avramow, D., Chordia, T., Jostova, G., & Philipov, A. (2007). Momentum and credit rating. Journal of Finance, 62(1), 2503-2520. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2007.01282.x
Banz, R. W. (1981). The Relationship between Return and Market Value of Common Stocks. Journal of Financial Economics, 9(1), 3-18. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(81)90018-0
Barberis, N., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. (1998). A model of investor sentiment. Journal of Financial Economics, 49(1), 307-343. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(98)00027-0
Basu, S. (1977). Investment performance of common stocks in relation to their price-earnings ratios: A test of the efficient market hypothesis. Journal of Finance, 32(1), 663-682. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1977.tb01979.x
Bauer, R., Cosemans, M., & Schotman, P. (2010). Conditional Asset Pricing and Stock Market Anomalies in Europe. European Financial Management, 16, 165-190. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-036X.2008.00453.x
Becker, S. (2008). Der Betafaktor im CAPM als variierender Regressionskoeffizient. Mainz: Institut für Statistik und Ökonometrie.
Bornholt, G. N. (2013). The Failure of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): An Update and Discussion. Abacus, 49(1), 36-43. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6281.2012.00382.x
Bowman, E. (1980). A-Risk-Return-Paradoxon for Strategic Management. Sloan-Management Review, 21(1), 17-33.
Breeden, & T., D. (1979). An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities. Journal of Financial Economics , 7(3), 265-296. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(79)90016-3
Brückner, R., Lehmann, P., & Stehle, R. (2012). In Germany the CAPM is Alive and Well. Retrieved 11 02, 2019, from http://ssrn.com/abstract=2161847 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2161847
Caliskan, N., & Hens, T. (2013). Value Around the World. Retrieved 10 19, 2019, from Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 13-32: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2274823 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2274823
Campbell, J. Y., Hilscher, J., & Szilagyi, J. (2008). In Search of Distress Risk. Journal of Finance, 63(6), 2899-2939. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2008.01416.x
Carhart, M. M. (1997). On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance. Journal of Finance, 52(1), 5782. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb03808.x
Chan, K., Karceski, J., & Lakonishok, J. (2003). The Level and Persistence of Growth Rates. Journal of Finance, 58(2), 634-684. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6261.00540
Chan, L. K., Jegadeesh, N., & Lakonishok, J. (1996). Momentum Strategies. Journal of Finance, 51(5), 1681-1713. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1996.tb05222.x
Chen, L., Novy-Marx, R., & Zhang, L. (2011). An Alternative Three-Factor Model. Washington: Working paper, Washington University St. Louis. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1418117
Chui, A., Titman, S., & Wei, J. (2010). Individualism and Momentum around the World. Journal of Finance, 65(1), 361-392-. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2009.01532.x
Claus, J., & Thomas, J. (2001). Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts’ Earnings. Journal of Finance, 56(6), 1629-1666.
Claus, J., & Thomas, J. (2001). Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets. Journal of Finance, 56(5),1629-1666 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00384
Cochrane, J. H. (1991). Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link Between Stock Returns and Economic Fluctuations. Journal of Finance, 46(1), 209-237. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb03750.x
Daniel, K., Hirshleifer, D., & Subrahmanyam, A. (1998). Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions. Journal of Finance, 53, 1839_1886. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00077
De Bondt, W. F., & Thaler, R. (1985). Does the Stockmarket overreact? Journal of finance, 40(3), 793-805. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1985.tb05004.x
De Bondt, W. F., & Thaler, R. (1987). Further Evidence of Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonality. Journal of Finance, 42(1), 557-582. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2328371
DeLong, J. B., Shleifer, L., Summers, H., & Waldmann, R. J. (1990). Positive feedback investment strategies and destabilizing rational speculation. Journal of Finance, 45(1), 379-395). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1990.tb03695.x
Dempsey, M. (2013). The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): The History of a Failed Revolutionary Idea in Finance? Abacus, 49(1), 9. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6281.2012.00379.x
Ebner, M., & Neumann, T. (2005). Time-Varying Betas of German Stock Returns. Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, 19(1), 29-46. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-005-2296-5
Elsas, R., El-Shaer, M., & Theissen, E. (2003). Beta and Returns Revisited. Evidence from the German Stock Market. International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 13(1), 1-18. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1042-4431(02)00023-9
Elsner, S., & Krumholz, H.-C. (2013). Corporate valuation using imprecise cost of capital. Journal of Business Economics, 83(1), 985-1014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-013-0687-z
Ernst, D., & Gleißner, W. (2012). Wie problematisch für die Unternehmensbewertung sind die restriktiven Annahmen des CAPM? DER BETRIEB, 49(1), 2761-2764.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. (2006). Profitability, Investment and Average Returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 82(1), 491-518. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2005.09.009
Fama, E. F., & French, K. (2008). Dissecting Anomalies. Journal of Finance, 63, 1653-1678. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2008.01371.x
Fama, E. F., & French, K. (2011). Size, Value, and Momentum in international Stock Returns, FamaMiller Working Paper. Chicago Booth Research Paper, 85(10-11), 23. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1720139
Fama, E. F., & French, K. (2012). Size, Value, and Momentum in international Stock Returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 105(3), 457-472. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2012.05.011
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1992). Section of Expected Stock Returns. The Journal of Finance, 6(1), 427-465. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04398.x
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993). Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds Journal of Financial Economics. 33(1), 3-56. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(93)90023-5
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1995). Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns. Journal of Finance, 50(1), 131-155. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb05169.x
Fama, E. F., & MacBeth, J. (1973). Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests. Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), 607-636. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/260061
Gebhardt, W. R., Lee, C., & Swaminathan, B. (2001). Toward an Implied Cost of Capital. Journal of Accounting, 39(1), 135-176. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-679X.00007
Gleißner, W. (2002). Wertorientierte Analyse der Unternehmensplanung auf Basis des Risikomanagements. FINANZ BETRIEB, 7-8(1), 417-427.
Gleißner, W. (2011). Risikoanalyse und Replikation für Unternehmensbewertung und wertorientierte Unternehmenssteuerung. WiSt, 7(1), 345-352. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15358/0340-1650-2011-7-345
Hagemeister, M., & Kempf, A. (2010). CAPM und erwartete Renditen. DBW, 2(1), 145-164. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-8497-5_1
Haugen, R. A. (2003). Rational Finance, Behavioral Finance and The New Finance, The New Finance. Cambridge: City Hall.
Heston, S. L., & Sadka, R. (2008). Seasonality in the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns. Boston: Boston Meetings Paper. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1192643
Hölzl, A., & Lobe, S. (2013). Does the Persistence in Sales Growth Rates Have Predictive Power? Retrieved 11 01, 2019, from ACATIS-Value-Preis 2013: www.acatis.de/de/valueinvesting/value-preis/acatis-value-preis-2013
Hong, H., & Stein, J. (1999). Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading and Overreaction 1555 in Asset Markets. Journal of Finance, 54(1), 2143-2184. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00184
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65-91. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04702.x
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (2011). Momentum. Dallas: University of Texas and the NBER. Joyce, C., & Mayer, K. (2012). Profits for the Long Run: Affirming the Case for Quality. GMO White Paper. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1919226
Klobucnik, J., & Sievers, S. (2013). Valuing high technology growth firms. Journal of Business Economics, 83(9), 947-984. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2
Koch, S., & Westheide, C. (2013). The Conditional Relation between Fama-French Betas and Return. Schmalenbach Business Review, sbr, 334-358. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03396861
Kruschwitz, L., Löffler, A., & Mandl, G. (2011). Damodarans Country Risk Premium – und was davon zu halten ist. Die Wirtschaftsprüfung WpG, 4(1), 167-176.
Lakonishok, J., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. (2003). Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk. The Journal of Finance, 49(5), 634-684. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1994.tb04772.x
Liu, Whited, & Zhang. (2010). Investment-based expected Stock Returns, University of Rochester. Rochester: University of Rochester.
Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, C. (1990). When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction? The Review of Financial Studies, 3(2), 175–205. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/3.2.175
Loughran, T., & Wellman, J. (2011). New Evidence on the Relation between the Enterprise Multiple and Average Stock Returns. Paris: Working paper, University of Notre Dame. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1481279
Malkiel, B. G. (2012). DCF Valuation with Cash Flow Cessation Risk. Journal of Applied Finance, 22(1), 75-185.
Matschke, M. J., Broesel, G., & Olbrich, M. (2012). Valuation of entrepreneurial businesses. International Journal, 4(3), 239-256. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1504/IJEV.2012.048595
Merton, R. C. (1987). A simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information. The Journal of Finance, 42(3), 483-510. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1987.tb04565.x
Michelson, S. E., Jordan-Wagner, J., & Wootton, C. (2000). The relationship between the smoothing of reported income and risk-adjusted returns. Journal of Economics and Finance, 24(2), 141159. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02752709
Ohlson, J. (1980). Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research, 18(1), 109-131. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2490395
Peller, A. (2012). The Survivability of Initial Public Offerings – Insights from the Product Market Competition. CORPORATE FINANCE, 2(1), 87-98.
Petkova, R., & Zhang, L. (2005). Is value riskier than growth? Journal of Financial Economics, 78(1), 187-202. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2004.12.001
Pettengill, G. N., Sundaram, S., & Mathur, I. (1995). The Conditional Relation between Beta and Returns. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 30(1), 101-116. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2331255
Shleifer, A. (2000). Inefficient Markets – An Introduction to Behavioral Finance. Oxford: Oxford University Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/0198292279.001.0001
Steiner, M., & Bauer, C. (1992). Die fundamentale Analyse und Prognose des Marktrisikos deutscher Aktien. Zeitschrift für betriebswirtschaftliche Forschung, zfbf, 347-368.
Stotz, O. (2008). Überrendite von Aktien: Risikoprämie oder Ambiguitätsprämie? DBW, 3(1), 337350.
Stulz, R. M., & Williamsen, R. (2003). Culture, Opennesse, and Finance. Journal of Financial Economics, 70(1), 313-349. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(03)00173-9
Titman, S. K., Wie, J., & Xie, F. (2004). Capital Investments And Stock Returns. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 39(4), 677-700. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109000003173
Walkshäusl, C. (2012). Die Volatilitätsanomalie auf dem deutschen Aktienmarkt: Mit weniger Risiko zu einer besseren Performance. CORPORATE FINANCE, 2(1), 81-86.
Walkshäusl, C. (2013). Fundamentalrisiken und Aktienrenditen: Auch hier gilt, mit weniger Risiko zu einer besseren Performance. CORPORATE FINANCE, 3, 119-123.
Walkshäusl, C. (2013). The High Returns to Low Volatility Stocks are Actually a Premium on High Quality Firms. Review of Financial Economics, 22(4), 180-186. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rfe.2013.06.001
Walkshäusl, C., & Lobe, S. (2011). The Alternative Three-Factor Model: An Alternative beyond US Markets? European Financial Management, 1, 5-6. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-036X.2011.00628.x
Zhang, C. (2009). On the explanatory power of firm-specific variables in cross-sections of expected returns. Journal of Empirical Finance, 16(2), 306-317. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2008.10.001
Zhang, C. (2006). Information uncertainty and stock returns. Journal of Finance, 61(1), 105-136. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2006.00831.x
Descargas
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución 4.0.
Los autores que publiquen en la revista VinculaTégica EFAN aceptan el siguiente aviso de derechos de autor:
a). Los autores conservan los derechos de autor y ceden a la revista el derecho de la primera publicación de la obra bajo una licencia de atribución de Creative Commons. Esta licencia permite a otros compartir la obra siempre que se reconozca la autoría original y la publicación inicial en esta revista.
b). Los autores pueden establecer acuerdos contractuales adicionales de manera independiente para la distribución no exclusiva de la versión publicada en la revista (por ejemplo, publicarla en un repositorio o incluirla en un libro), siempre que se reconozca la publicación inicial en esta revista.
c). Se permite a los autores autoarchivar su trabajo en repositorios institucionales o en su propio sitio web antes y durante el proceso de envío, ya que esto puede fomentar intercambios productivos y aumentar la citación temprana y general del trabajo publicado.