Efectos en épocas disruptivas de cambios fiscales mediante el sentimiento de social media: caso de estudio aplicado a México
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29105/vtga6.2-651Keywords:
Cambios regulatorios, Administración de riesgos fiscales, Incertidumbre, Reforma fiscal, Google Trends, MéxicoAbstract
Nowadays, international trends and best practices regarding tax
regulatory changes and their incorporation into local legislation
are threatening the strategic direction of companies if there is no
a robust framework for identification, analysis, control and
management of tax risks that help the C-Suite in: (1) making
informed and reasoned decisions, as well as help them in (2)
mitigating and minimizing these risks in achieving compliance
with the strategic plan of the companies and their financial
performance. For this reason, the research we propose is to
determine the risks originated by tax changes in our country. In
this regard, the monthly series of the performance of the Price and
Quotation Index of Mexico and the Performance of the S&P 500
are used, monthly from 2004 to March 2020. In addition, we
analyze through Google Trends the sentiment experienced in the
news and websites of the word “Tax reform in Mexico” and later
we use the CAPM model and the financial contagion model to
determine the impact of this additional factor in the stock market.
The results show that tax reforms do affect the stock market
during 2004 to date and the impact is very strong and significant,
this shows us that the uncertainty of businessmen and investors
increases more in times of tax reforms than without them.
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